Islam Makhachev vs Nik Lentz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-1-0Record30-12-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Eagles MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Nik Lentz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1927
If they lose-19→ 1903
If they win+19→ 1689
If they lose-5→ 1665
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Islam MakhachevNik Lentz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev92%
Nik Lentz 8%Elo baseline: 81%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 92% favorite over Nik Lentz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1670, a 252-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Islam Makhachev finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Nik Lentz 63%.
Islam Makhachev and Nik Lentz share 1 common opponent: Charles Oliveira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.