Islam Makhachev vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
29-1-0Record19-0-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
70"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Eagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamKazakhstan Top Team
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Shavkat Rakhmonov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1940
If they lose-15→ 1916
If they win+19→ 1874
If they lose-13→ 1842
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1796 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Islam MakhachevShavkat Rakhmonov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev66%
Shavkat Rakhmonov 34%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 66% favorite over Shavkat Rakhmonov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1855, a 76-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Shavkat Rakhmonov 95%.
Islam Makhachev and Shavkat Rakhmonov share 1 common opponent: Ian Machado Garry.
Shavkat Rakhmonov carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.