Ismael Bonfim vs Marcos Aurélio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record10-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight152 lbs
Cerrado MMA· 1629 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamMutaru
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ismael BonfimMarcos Aurélio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ismael Bonfim67%
Marcos Aurélio 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ismael Bonfim a 67% favorite over Marcos Aurélio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1661), separated by just 1 points.
Ismael Bonfim enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marcos Aurélio enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ismael Bonfim finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Aurélio 80%.
Ismael Bonfim carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.