Ismail Naurdiev vs Ryan Loder
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-8-0Record7-3-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
74"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Top Team SalzburgTeamApex Wrestling Academy
What's at stake
Ismail Naurdiev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Ryan Loder carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1673
If they lose-15→ 1649
If they win+19→ 1609
If they lose-13→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ismail NaurdievRyan Loder
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ismail Naurdiev71%
Ryan Loder 29%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Ismail Naurdiev a 71% favorite over Ryan Loder in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Ismail Naurdiev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1590, a 74-point edge.
Ryan Loder enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ismail Naurdiev finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Loder 71%.
Ryan Loder carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.