Israel Adesanya vs Nick Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'1"
80"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
City KickboxingTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1773
If they lose-12→ 1749
If they win+12→ 1771
If they lose-12→ 1747
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Israel AdesanyaNick Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Israel Adesanya70%
Nick Diaz 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Israel Adesanya a 70% favorite over Nick Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1761 vs 1759), separated by just 2 points.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Israel Adesanya finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.
Israel Adesanya carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.