Issa Hosokawa vs Naoki Tanaka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record4-2-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
-Reach-
152 lbsWeight145 lbs
Freelance· 1581 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamFighter's Flow
What's at stake
Naoki Tanaka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Issa Hosokawa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1503
If they lose-19→ 1455
If they win+19→ 1573
If they lose-29→ 1525
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1485 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Issa HosokawaNaoki Tanaka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Naoki Tanaka57%
Issa Hosokawa 43%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Naoki Tanaka a 57% favorite over Issa Hosokawa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Naoki Tanaka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1554 to 1474, a 80-point edge.
Naoki Tanaka enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Naoki Tanaka 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.