Italo Diaz vs Jake Lindsey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-2-0Record15-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight5'11"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
TeamCombative Sports Center
What's at stake
Italo Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Jake Lindsey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1474
If they lose-26→ 1426
If they win+17→ 1440
If they lose-15→ 1408
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Italo DiazJake Lindsey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Italo Diaz63%
Jake Lindsey 37%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Italo Diaz a 63% favorite over Jake Lindsey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Italo Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1452 to 1423, a 29-point edge.
Italo Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jake Lindsey enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jake Lindsey 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.