Italo Diaz vs Justin Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-2-0Record0-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'9"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TeamDark Horse Gym
What's at stake
Italo Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Justin Davis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1475
If they lose-25→ 1427
If they win+17→ 1448
If they lose-15→ 1416
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Italo DiazJustin Davis
Combat Edge model read
Italo Diaz53%
Justin Davis 47%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Italo Diaz a 53% favorite over Justin Davis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Italo Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1452 to 1431, a 21-point edge.
Italo Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.