Italo Diaz vs Marlon Sims
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-2-0Record3-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeightTBD
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TeamShamrock Submission Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1476
If they lose-24→ 1428
If they win+24→ 1481
If they lose-24→ 1433
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Italo DiazMarlon Sims
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Italo Diaz57%
Marlon Sims 43%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Italo Diaz a 57% favorite over Marlon Sims in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marlon Sims's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1452 vs 1457), separated by just 5 points.
Italo Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marlon Sims enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marlon Sims 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.