Ivan Menjivar vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-12-0Record11-7-0
BantamweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height5'6"
TBDReach68"
135 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
Ivan Menjivar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Serra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1657
If they lose-13→ 1633
If they win+18→ 1623
If they lose-14→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ivan MenjivarMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ivan Menjivar58%
Matt Serra 42%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Ivan Menjivar a 58% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Ivan Menjivar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1605, a 41-point edge.
Ivan Menjivar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ivan Menjivar finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.