Combat Edge Intelligence

Ivan Serati vs Tomasz Drwal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record22-6-1
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
225 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sure Grip Vale TudoTeamSzkola Walki Drwala

What's at stake

Tomasz Drwal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ivan Serati carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ivan SeratiNow 1570
If they win+18→ 1588
If they lose-14→ 1556
Tomasz DrwalNow 1615
If they win+10→ 1625
If they lose-14→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1520 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.48
Sig. strikes / min
3.29
27%
Strike accuracy
38%
15.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.26
30%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
3.55
0%
Takedown accuracy
60%
0%
Takedown defense
82%
0
Submission avg.
0.39

Trajectory

Ivan SeratiTomasz Drwal
1550160016502008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

8 (67%)
KO/TKO
14 (64%)
3 (25%)
Submission
5 (23%)
1 (8%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Tomasz Drwal57%
Ivan Serati 43%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Tomasz Drwal a 57% favorite over Ivan Serati in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Tomasz Drwal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1570, a 45-point edge.

Ivan Serati finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Tomasz Drwal 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.