J.C. Cottrell vs Jason Gonzalez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record11-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'2"
40.00Reach74,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Jason Gonzalez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — J.C. Cottrell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+34→ 1512
If they lose-14→ 1464
If they win+9→ 1648
If they lose-23→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1706 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
J.C. CottrellJason Gonzalez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jason Gonzalez75%
J.C. Cottrell 25%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Jason Gonzalez a 75% favorite over J.C. Cottrell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Jason Gonzalez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1478, a 161-point edge.
J.C. Cottrell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Gonzalez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
J.C. Cottrell finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Jason Gonzalez 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.