Jacinta Austin vs Natalia Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record8-0-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'0"
65"Reach-
116 lbsWeight115 lbs
Igor MMA AcademyTeamThe Fighting Nerds· 1678 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Natalia Alves is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Jacinta Austin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1653
If they lose-14→ 1621
If they win+21→ 1695
If they lose-27→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jacinta AustinNatalia Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Natalia Alves59%
Jacinta Austin 41%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Natalia Alves a 59% favorite over Jacinta Austin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Natalia Alves holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1635, a 39-point edge.
Jacinta Austin enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Natalia Alves enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Jacinta Austin finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Natalia Alves 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.