Jack Hermansson vs Thales Leites
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-0Record28-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77"Reach78,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Frontline AcademyTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jack Hermansson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1734
If they lose-11→ 1710
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jack HermanssonThales Leites
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jack Hermansson58%
Thales Leites 42%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Jack Hermansson a 58% favorite over Thales Leites in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thales Leites's way (47%).
Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1721, a 23-point edge.
Jack Hermansson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jack Hermansson finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.