Combat Edge Intelligence

Jack Marshman vs Ryan Janes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-0Record10-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
TBDReach76.50
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tillery Combat MMA AcademyTeamZugec Ultimate Martial Arts

What's at stake

Jack Marshman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ryan Janes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jack MarshmanNow 1620
If they win+10→ 1630
If they lose-14→ 1606
Ryan JanesNow 1559
If they win+28→ 1587
If they lose-20→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.74
Sig. strikes / min
7.69
26%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.19
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.53
57%
Strike defense
59%
0
Takedown avg.
0.35
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
20%
Takedown defense
58%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jack MarshmanRyan Janes
15001550160016502017201820192020

Win method breakdown

13 (57%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
5 (22%)
Submission
6 (60%)
5 (22%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Jack Marshman61%
Ryan Janes 39%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Jack Marshman a 61% favorite over Ryan Janes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Jack Marshman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1620 to 1559, a 61-point edge.

Jack Marshman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jack Marshman finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Janes 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.