Combat Edge Intelligence

Jack Marshman vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Tillery Combat MMA AcademyTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jack Marshman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jack MarshmanNow 1620
If they win+14→ 1634
If they lose-10→ 1610
Thiago SantosNow 1674
If they win+10→ 1684
If they lose-14→ 1660

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.74
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
26%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.19
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
57%
Strike defense
54%
0
Takedown avg.
0.88
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
20%
Takedown defense
66%
0
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Jack MarshmanThiago Santos
1600165017002019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

13 (57%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
5 (22%)
Submission
1 (5%)
5 (22%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jack Marshman and Thiago Santos within a point of even.

Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1620, a 54-point edge.

Jack Marshman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Jack Marshman finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.