Jack Marshman vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Tillery Combat MMA AcademyTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jack Marshman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1635
If they lose-9→ 1611
If they win+9→ 1703
If they lose-15→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jack MarshmanThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Santos54%
Jack Marshman 46%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 54% favorite over Jack Marshman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1620, a 74-point edge.
Jack Marshman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jack Marshman finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.