Jack Nilson vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-6-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
215 lbsWeight246 lbs
TeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
Ryo Sakai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jack Nilson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1448
If they lose-19→ 1400
If they win+10→ 1501
If they lose-14→ 1477
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jack NilsonRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai70%
Jack Nilson 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 70% favorite over Jack Nilson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Ryo Sakai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1491 to 1419, a 72-point edge.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.