Combat Edge Intelligence

Jacob Kilburn vs Noah Hermosillo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-7-0Record1-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
72,0"Reach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Harris Holt Combat SportsTeamAmerican Top Team Happy Valley

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jacob KilburnNow 1527
If they win+16→ 1543
If they lose-16→ 1511
Noah HermosilloNow 1526
If they win+24→ 1550
If they lose-24→ 1502

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.56
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
34%
Strike accuracy
TBD
6.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
35%
Strike defense
TBD
0.51
Takedown avg.
TBD
6%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
20%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.51
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jacob KilburnNoah Hermosillo
155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
2 (25%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (25%)
Decision
1 (100%)

Combat Edge model read

Noah Hermosillo66%
Jacob Kilburn 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Noah Hermosillo a 66% favorite over Jacob Kilburn in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jacob Kilburn's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1527 vs 1526), separated by just 1 points.

Jacob Kilburn enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Jacob Kilburn finishes 75% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.