Jacob Rosales vs Wilson Varela
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-9-0Record13-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
74,0"Reach75.6"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1510 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jacob RosalesWilson Varela
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jacob Rosales54%
Wilson Varela 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jacob Rosales a 54% favorite over Wilson Varela in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1576), separated by just 0 points.
Wilson Varela enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jacob Rosales finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Varela 83%.
Wilson Varela carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.