Combat Edge Intelligence

Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Tonya Evinger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record19-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach39,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamW4R Training Center· 1622 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Jacqueline Cavalcanti is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Tonya Evinger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jacqueline CavalcantiNow 1671
If they win+15→ 1686
If they lose-17→ 1654
Tonya EvingerNow 1656
If they win+13→ 1669
If they lose-11→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.65
Sig. strikes / min
1.16
47%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.02
69%
Strike defense
39%
0
Takedown avg.
0.93
0%
Takedown accuracy
30%
88%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0.93

Trajectory

Jacqueline CavalcantiTonya Evinger
160016501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
8 (42%)
0 (0%)
Submission
7 (37%)
7 (70%)
Decision
4 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Jacqueline Cavalcanti73%
Tonya Evinger 27%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Jacqueline Cavalcanti a 73% favorite over Tonya Evinger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Jacqueline Cavalcanti holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1671 to 1656, a 15-point edge.

Tonya Evinger enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Tonya Evinger 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.