Jaden Ortega vs Paulo Thiago
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record19-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
75"ReachTBD
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1619
If they lose-24→ 1571
If they win+12→ 1607
If they lose-12→ 1583
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1471 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jaden OrtegaPaulo Thiago
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Thiago52%
Jaden Ortega 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Thiago a 52% favorite over Jaden Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jaden Ortega's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1595), separated by just 0 points.
Jaden Ortega finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Thiago 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.