Combat Edge Intelligence

Jafel Filho vs Muhammad Mokaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record16-0-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'9"
68"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamKHK MMA Team

What's at stake

Muhammad Mokaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jafel Filho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jafel FilhoNow 1669
If they win+22→ 1691
If they lose-10→ 1659
Muhammad MokaevNow 1802
If they win+10→ 1812
If they lose-22→ 1780

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.85
Sig. strikes / min
1.61
42%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.35
50%
Strike defense
58%
2.52
Takedown avg.
5.29
45%
Takedown accuracy
41%
67%
Takedown defense
25%
2.24
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Jafel FilhoMuhammad Mokaev
1650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (29%)
KO/TKO
3 (19%)
11 (65%)
Submission
7 (44%)
1 (6%)
Decision
6 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Muhammad Mokaev87%
Jafel Filho 13%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Muhammad Mokaev a 87% favorite over Jafel Filho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Muhammad Mokaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1669, a 133-point edge.

Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Jafel Filho finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Muhammad Mokaev 63%.

Muhammad Mokaev carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.