Jafel Filho vs Muhammad Mokaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record16-0-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'9"
68"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamKHK MMA Team· 1686 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Muhammad Mokaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jafel Filho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1692
If they lose-10→ 1660
If they win+10→ 1815
If they lose-22→ 1783
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1615 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jafel FilhoMuhammad Mokaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Muhammad Mokaev83%
Jafel Filho 17%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Muhammad Mokaev a 83% favorite over Jafel Filho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Muhammad Mokaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1805 to 1670, a 135-point edge.
Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Jafel Filho finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Muhammad Mokaev 63%.
Muhammad Mokaev carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.