Combat Edge Intelligence

Jafel Filho vs Muin Gafurov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record20-7-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
68"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight136 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamTaj-Fighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jafel FilhoNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Muin GafurovNow 1668
If they win+16→ 1684
If they lose-16→ 1652

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.85
Sig. strikes / min
2.89
42%
Strike accuracy
46%
1.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
50%
Strike defense
53%
2.52
Takedown avg.
1.47
45%
Takedown accuracy
26%
67%
Takedown defense
70%
2.24
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jafel FilhoMuin Gafurov
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (29%)
KO/TKO
10 (50%)
11 (65%)
Submission
7 (35%)
1 (6%)
Decision
3 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jafel Filho and Muin Gafurov within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1668), separated by just 1 points.

Jafel Filho finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Muin Gafurov 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.