Jaida Harshman vs Mathew Gesto
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-1-0Record3-1-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'3"
-ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
What's at stake
Mathew Gesto is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Jaida Harshman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1525
If they lose-20→ 1477
If they win+20→ 1575
If they lose-28→ 1527
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jaida HarshmanMathew Gesto
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jaida Harshman52%
Mathew Gesto 48%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Jaida Harshman a 52% favorite over Mathew Gesto in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mathew Gesto's way (42%).
Mathew Gesto holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1555 to 1497, a 58-point edge.
Mathew Gesto enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mathew Gesto 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.