Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-5-0Record18-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
79"Reach 78"
241 lbsWeight256 lbs
Galpao da Luta· 1691 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamPolar Bear Team
What's at stake
Jailton Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Serghei Spivac carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1784
If they lose-19→ 1752
If they win+19→ 1728
If they lose-13→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jailton AlmeidaSerghei Spivac
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Serghei Spivac60%
Jailton Almeida 40%Elo baseline: 41%
The Combat Edge model makes Serghei Spivac a 60% favorite over Jailton Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jailton Almeida's way (41%).
Jailton Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1771 to 1709, a 62-point edge.
Jailton Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jailton Almeida finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Serghei Spivac 83%.
Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac share 1 common opponent: Derrick Lewis.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.