Jailton Almeida vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-5-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'5"
79"Reach78"
241 lbsWeight251 lbs
Galpao da LutaTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1787
If they lose-16→ 1755
If they win+16→ 1791
If they lose-16→ 1759
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jailton AlmeidaTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall60%
Jailton Almeida 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 60% favorite over Jailton Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1771 vs 1775), separated by just 4 points.
Jailton Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jailton Almeida finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Jailton Almeida and Tom Aspinall share 3 common opponents: Alexander Volkov, Serghei Spivac and Curtis Blaydes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.