Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Sergei Pavlovich
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record21-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
78"Reach84"
259 lbsWeight260 lbs
American Top TeamTeamEagles MMA
What's at stake
Sergei Pavlovich is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jairzinho Rozenstruik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1724
If they lose-11→ 1692
If they win+11→ 1820
If they lose-21→ 1788
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1730 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jairzinho RozenstruikSergei Pavlovich
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich89%
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 11%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 89% favorite over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Sergei Pavlovich holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1809 to 1703, a 106-point edge.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Sergei Pavlovich 76%.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Sergei Pavlovich share 3 common opponents: Tai Tuivasa, Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes.
Sergei Pavlovich carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.