Jake Craig vs Tony Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-1-0Record18-8-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight265 lbs
Shaved Bears MMA· 1598 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamNashville MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1627
If they lose-24→ 1579
If they win+16→ 1619
If they lose-16→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1553 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake CraigTony Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Craig58%
Tony Johnson 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Craig a 58% favorite over Tony Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1603 vs 1603), separated by just 0 points.
Tony Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jake Craig finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tony Johnson 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.