Combat Edge Intelligence

Jake Ellenberger vs Jake Shields

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

31-15-0Record33-11-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
39,5"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Reign MMATeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Jake Shields is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jake EllenbergerNow 1665
If they win+14→ 1679
If they lose-10→ 1655
Jake ShieldsNow 1734
If they win+10→ 1744
If they lose-14→ 1720

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.47
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
39%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.50
61%
Strike defense
56%
2.04
Takedown avg.
1.19
48%
Takedown accuracy
12%
86%
Takedown defense
36%
0.36
Submission avg.
0.12

Trajectory

Jake EllenbergerJake Shields
16501700175020172018

Win method breakdown

21 (68%)
KO/TKO
3 (9%)
4 (13%)
Submission
12 (36%)
6 (19%)
Decision
18 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake Shields59%
Jake Ellenberger 41%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake Shields a 59% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Jake Shields holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1665, a 69-point edge.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Jake Shields 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.