Jake Ellenberger vs Jay Hieron
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-15-0Record23-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
39,5"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Reign MMATeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Jay Hieron is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1679
If they lose-10→ 1655
If they win+10→ 1730
If they lose-14→ 1706
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake EllenbergerJay Hieron
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jay Hieron61%
Jake Ellenberger 39%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Jay Hieron a 61% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Jay Hieron holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1665, a 55-point edge.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jay Hieron enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Jay Hieron 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.