Jake Ellenberger vs Jorge Masvidal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-15-0Record35-17-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
39,5"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Reign MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Jorge Masvidal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1680
If they lose-9→ 1656
If they win+9→ 1749
If they lose-15→ 1725
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1690 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1781 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake EllenbergerJorge Masvidal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jorge Masvidal58%
Jake Ellenberger 42%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Jorge Masvidal a 58% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Jorge Masvidal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1665, a 75-point edge.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Masvidal 51%.
Jake Ellenberger and Jorge Masvidal share 1 common opponent: Stephen Thompson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.