Jake Ellenberger vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-15-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
39,5"Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Reign MMATeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1679
If they lose-10→ 1655
If they win+10→ 1735
If they lose-14→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1690 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1729 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake EllenbergerRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald66%
Jake Ellenberger 34%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 66% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1665, a 60-point edge.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.