Jake Ellenberger vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-15-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
39,5"Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Reign MMATeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1680
If they lose-9→ 1656
If they win+9→ 1750
If they lose-15→ 1726
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake EllenbergerRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald81%
Jake Ellenberger 19%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 81% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1665, a 76-point edge.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald share 1 common opponent: Stephen Thompson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.