Jake Hecht vs TJ Waldburger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fiore MMATeamGrapplers Lair Fight Team
What's at stake
Jake Hecht is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — TJ Waldburger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1628
If they lose-17→ 1596
If they win+17→ 1609
If they lose-15→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake HechtTJ Waldburger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Waldburger62%
Jake Hecht 38%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Waldburger a 62% favorite over Jake Hecht in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jake Hecht's way (47%).
Jake Hecht holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1613 to 1592, a 21-point edge.
Jake Hecht enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
TJ Waldburger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jake Hecht finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, TJ Waldburger 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.