Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record28-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
73"Reach72,5"
170 lbsWeight159 lbs
NexusTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Johnny Case carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1762
If they lose-15→ 1738
If they win+15→ 1679
If they lose-9→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsJohnny Case
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews92%
Johnny Case 8%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 92% favorite over Johnny Case in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1753 to 1664, a 89-point edge.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.