Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record30-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
73"Reach72,5"
170 lbsWeight159 lbs
NexusTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Johnny Case carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1759
If they lose-16→ 1735
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-8→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsJohnny Case
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews76%
Johnny Case 24%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 76% favorite over Johnny Case in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1751 to 1633, a 118-point edge.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.