Jake Matthews vs Kevin Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record20-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
NexusTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kevin Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1764
If they lose-13→ 1740
If they win+13→ 1724
If they lose-11→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsKevin Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews71%
Kevin Lee 29%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 71% favorite over Kevin Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1753 to 1711, a 42-point edge.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.
Kevin Lee carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.