Jake Matthews vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
73"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
NexusTeamClinch Academy
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Matthew Semelsberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1760
If they lose-17→ 1736
If they win+22→ 1630
If they lose-10→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews92%
Matthew Semelsberger 8%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 92% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1753 to 1608, a 145-point edge.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Matthew Semelsberger carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.