Jake Matthews vs Michael Morales
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
73"Reach 79"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
NexusTeamEntram Gym
What's at stake
Michael Morales is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jake Matthews carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1768
If they lose-9→ 1744
If they win+12→ 1851
If they lose-20→ 1819
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsMichael Morales
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Morales80%
Jake Matthews 20%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Morales a 80% favorite over Jake Matthews in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Michael Morales holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1839 to 1753, a 86-point edge.
Michael Morales enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Michael Morales 79%.
Jake Matthews and Michael Morales share 2 common opponents: Neil Magny and Sean Brady.
Michael Morales carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.