Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record32-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
73"Reach80"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
NexusTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Neil Magny is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jake Matthews carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1764
If they lose-11→ 1740
If they win+11→ 1779
If they lose-13→ 1755
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1734 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsNeil Magny
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jake Matthews and Neil Magny within a point of even.
Neil Magny holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1768 to 1751, a 17-point edge.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Neil Magny 47%.
Jake Matthews and Neil Magny share 2 common opponents: Phil Rowe and Michael Morales.
Neil Magny carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.