Jake Matthews vs Phil Rowe
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record11-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
73"Reach80"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
NexusTeamFusion X-Cel Performance· 1620 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Phil Rowe carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1759
If they lose-16→ 1735
If they win+21→ 1659
If they lose-11→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsPhil Rowe
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews77%
Phil Rowe 23%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 77% favorite over Phil Rowe in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1751 to 1638, a 113-point edge.
Phil Rowe enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Phil Rowe 100%.
Jake Matthews and Phil Rowe share 1 common opponent: Neil Magny.
Phil Rowe carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.