Jake Matthews vs Sam Patterson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record15-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'4"
73"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1763
If they lose-12→ 1739
If they win+16→ 1762
If they lose-16→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsSam Patterson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Patterson51%
Jake Matthews 49%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 51% favorite over Jake Matthews in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jake Matthews's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1751 vs 1746), separated by just 5 points.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.
Sam Patterson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.