Jake Matthews vs Vagner Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record14-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
73"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
NexusTeamTeam VRMA
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Vagner Rocha carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1763
If they lose-14→ 1739
If they win+19→ 1703
If they lose-13→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsVagner Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews72%
Vagner Rocha 28%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 72% favorite over Vagner Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1753 to 1684, a 69-point edge.
Vagner Rocha enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Vagner Rocha 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.