Jake McHugh vs Martin Day
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record8-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-Reach40,5"
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamHawaii Elite MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1569
If they lose-24→ 1521
If they win+16→ 1566
If they lose-16→ 1534
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake McHughMartin Day
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake McHugh60%
Martin Day 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake McHugh a 60% favorite over Martin Day in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Martin Day's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1545 vs 1550), separated by just 5 points.
Martin Day enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jake McHugh finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Martin Day 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.