Combat Edge Intelligence

Jake McHugh vs Tiago Trator

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record22-9-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-Reach70.00
146 lbsWeight155 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamTeam Nogueira

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jake McHughNow 1548
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524
Tiago TratorNow 1550
If they win+24→ 1574
If they lose-24→ 1526

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1502 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.69
TBD
Strike accuracy
36%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.23
TBD
Strike defense
60%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.63
TBD
Takedown accuracy
11%
TBD
Takedown defense
33%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Jake McHughTiago Trator
15001550201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (25%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
2 (50%)
Submission
7 (32%)
1 (25%)
Decision
8 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake McHugh60%
Tiago Trator 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake McHugh a 60% favorite over Tiago Trator in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tiago Trator's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1550), separated by just 2 points.

Jake McHugh finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Tiago Trator 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.