Jake Paul vs Leonardo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record15-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
71" Reach73"
191 lbsWeight205 lbs
TeamTata Fight Team· 1516 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Leonardo Guimaraes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jake Paul carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1433
If they lose-23→ 1385
If they win+15→ 1438
If they lose-17→ 1406
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake PaulLeonardo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Paul60%
Leonardo Guimaraes 40%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Paul a 60% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leonardo Guimaraes's way (48%).
Leonardo Guimaraes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1423 to 1408, a 15-point edge.
Jake Paul finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.
Leonardo Guimaraes carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.