Jake Paul vs Leonardo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record15-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
71" Reach73"
191 lbsWeight205 lbs
TeamTata Fight Team· 1517 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1433
If they lose-23→ 1385
If they win+15→ 1437
If they lose-17→ 1405
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake PaulLeonardo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Paul58%
Leonardo Guimaraes 42%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Paul a 58% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leonardo Guimaraes's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1408 vs 1422), separated by just 14 points.
Jake Paul finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.
Leonardo Guimaraes carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.