Jake Paul vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height-
71" Reach-
191 lbsWeight205 lbs
TeamTeam Ryano Waterford· 1566 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Jake Paul carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1436
If they lose-20→ 1388
If they win+20→ 1491
If they lose-28→ 1443
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake PaulMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke66%
Jake Paul 34%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 66% favorite over Jake Paul in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1408, a 63-point edge.
Jake Paul finishes 58% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.