Combat Edge Intelligence

Jake Shields vs Kevin Holland

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

33-11-1Record29-15-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
TBDReach81"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamPhalanx MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jake ShieldsNow 1734
If they win+12→ 1746
If they lose-12→ 1722
Kevin HollandNow 1736
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-12→ 1724

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.77
Sig. strikes / min
4.24
32%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.21
56%
Strike defense
50%
1.19
Takedown avg.
0.79
12%
Takedown accuracy
0%
36%
Takedown defense
58%
0.12
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Jake ShieldsKevin Holland
17502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (9%)
KO/TKO
14 (48%)
12 (36%)
Submission
9 (31%)
18 (55%)
Decision
6 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Holland70%
Jake Shields 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 70% favorite over Jake Shields in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1734 vs 1736), separated by just 2 points.

Jake Shields finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Holland 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.