Combat Edge Intelligence

Jake Shields vs Martin Kampmann

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

33-11-1Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Jake Shields is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Martin Kampmann carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jake ShieldsNow 1734
If they win+9→ 1743
If they lose-15→ 1719
Martin KampmannNow 1634
If they win+20→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.77
Sig. strikes / min
3.22
32%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.28
56%
Strike defense
62%
1.19
Takedown avg.
1.86
12%
Takedown accuracy
41%
36%
Takedown defense
78%
0.12
Submission avg.
2.05

Trajectory

Jake ShieldsMartin Kampmann
160016501700175020112012201320142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

3 (9%)
KO/TKO
9 (47%)
12 (36%)
Submission
6 (32%)
18 (55%)
Decision
4 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake Shields58%
Martin Kampmann 42%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake Shields a 58% favorite over Martin Kampmann in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Jake Shields holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1634, a 100-point edge.

Martin Kampmann enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jake Shields finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Martin Kampmann 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.