Jake Shields vs Tyron Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
33-11-1Record19-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team Evolution
What's at stake
Tyron Woodley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jake Shields carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1747
If they lose-11→ 1723
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake ShieldsTyron Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tyron Woodley70%
Jake Shields 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Tyron Woodley a 70% favorite over Jake Shields in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Tyron Woodley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1734, a 40-point edge.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jake Shields finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Tyron Woodley 63%.
Jake Shields and Tyron Woodley share 1 common opponent: Demian Maia.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.