Combat Edge Intelligence

Jake Shields vs Yoshihiro Akiyama

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

33-11-1Record16-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach73,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Jake Shields is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Yoshihiro Akiyama carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jake ShieldsNow 1734
If they win+10→ 1744
If they lose-14→ 1720
Yoshihiro AkiyamaNow 1678
If they win+19→ 1697
If they lose-13→ 1665

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.77
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
32%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.62
56%
Strike defense
58%
1.19
Takedown avg.
2.29
12%
Takedown accuracy
68%
36%
Takedown defense
93%
0.12
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Jake ShieldsYoshihiro Akiyama
165017001750201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

3 (9%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
12 (36%)
Submission
7 (44%)
18 (55%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake Shields60%
Yoshihiro Akiyama 40%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake Shields a 60% favorite over Yoshihiro Akiyama in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Jake Shields holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1678, a 56-point edge.

Yoshihiro Akiyama enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jake Shields finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Yoshihiro Akiyama 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.