Jake Woodley vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-1-0Record34-18-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
-Reach75"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team BodyshopTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1660
If they lose-24→ 1612
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1488 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake WoodleySam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Woodley67%
Sam Alvey 33%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Woodley a 67% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sam Alvey's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1636 vs 1640), separated by just 4 points.
Jake Woodley enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Jake Woodley finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.